The urgency of China's energy consumption structure transformation
Energy supply is an important guarantee for economic development. High carbon energy structure not only influences the ecological environment but also leads to a slowdown in economic transformation.
Renewable energy power is the fundamental way to replace fossil energy. Affected by excess capacity and Paris climate change conference and other factors, China's energy structure is entering a profound reform age. It is predicted that the proportion of fossil energy will be reduced from about 80% in 2010 and less than 15% in 2050. Meanwhile, new energy led by PV has a broad space. It is predicted that China’s PV installed capacity will reach 150GW and 500GW in 2020 and 2025 respectively.
Power cost reduction is the key to PV industry development
According to National Energy Administration, China's total installed capacity of PV amounted to 43.18 million kilowatts by the end of 2015, with 15.28 million kilowatts of new PV power generation installed capacity, which makes China become the world's largest PV power generation country. China's PV installed capacity and volume has increased by 40 times in the past 5 years. The output of PV cells and components has always been the first in the world. China’s industrial policies in PV manufacturing and application are maturer, which boosts the steady market growth, and indicates that China's PV industry forges ahead.
PV power generation is a clean energy with the greatest potential for application. In the next five years, PV electricity costs will decrease approximately 50%. In terms of industrial train and system construction, open power market, perfect transmission with motor system, decreasing financial interest and son on will provide market system guarantee for industry development in the next 5 years. Furthermore, in terms of manufacturing, decreasing product costs and improving quality and system will be the key to a significant decline in the cost of PV power.
Industrial upgrading & advanced technology
In 2015, National Energy Administration launched Top Runner Program to stimulate product market demand and promote enterprises’ technological upgrading and product quality.
It is expected that manufacture polysilicon solar cell with conversion efficiency will reach 18.5% and silicon solar cell of 21% in 2016. Due to the quality of semiconductor grade silicon components, conversion efficiency will be improved and costs will reduced in the future, which means silicon will become the best technology to reduce electricity costs and the trend of future market development. PERC technology can improve conversion efficiency of silicon solar cell of 1%, while polysilicon solar cell of 0.5%. In the next few years PERC combined with MWT and N silicon will lead to more efficient product industry.
Monocrystalline silicon to be the mainstream
The output of China's silicon solar cell reached 16.5GW in 2015, accounting for 39% of global production capacity. It will climb to 41% in 2016. In 2015, due to the rapid upgrading of technology and the decreasing costs, this situation has changed. In the first half of 2015 the price difference between polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon was 0.15-0.3 RMB /W, while in the second half of 2015 the price difference of mainstream products was less than 0.1 RMB /W. It is expected that the construction investment of PV power station led by silicon will be reduced to 5.8 RMB and component cost will be decreased by 25%. The cost of PV power generation will probably decrease more than 50%, which is benefit for humans enjoying the clean energy and suitable environment.
Welcome to PV Guangzhou2016! Look forward to your participation sincerely!
Date: September 26-28, 2016
Venue: China Import & Export Fair Complex